Some blame taxes as Illinois grows on paper but loses residents

By Sean Reed | The Center Square
The Center Square

(The Center Square) – Illinois’ population has continued to narrowly grow this year, despite a significant number of cities in the state losing residents to other states.

Some say the trend of increasing tax rates is to blame.

The majority of metropolitan areas in the state have lost residents again in 2025, with Census Bureau data estimates showing only two major areas with any real domestic growth, Rockford and the Illinois portion of the St. Louis metro.

Bryce Hill, director of fiscal and economic analysis for the Illinois Policy Institute, said taxes are driving Illinoisans beyond state boundaries.

“Illinois already imposes one of the highest tax burdens in the country, with the nation’s highest property taxes, among the highest sales taxes, and a 32% income tax increase in 2017,” Hill said. “If state leaders are serious about reversing domestic outmigration, they must focus on tax relief and reducing regulatory barriers to make Illinois more competitive and affordable.”

Rockford is the only main metro in the state that saw true population growth, according to the data. The gain came from all areas, domestic and international migration, and a natural population increase.

The Chicago metro, including surrounding counties, saw a domestic migration loss of almost 34,000, with the area only growing by 4,200 people when accounting for international migration.

Darren Bailey, the Republican nominee for Illinois Governor, also pointed to state taxes as a big reason people are leaving Illinois.

“It’s pretty simple. It’s affordability. People can’t afford to live here. I mean that is the number one far and away issue. I have been in Chicago for the last two weeks,” Bailey said. “Property taxes are too high – especially for our friends here in Chicago, they have escalated in the last three years much faster than ours have in the rest of the state.”

Bailey said schools and public safety are also concerns he believes could be improved to bring and keep residents in the state.

Bailey won the Republican primary election for governor earlier this month and is spending time on the ground in Chicago as part of his current campaign.

According to a recent U.S. Census Bureau report, Cook County ranks fifth highest in the nation for international net migration as of yearly data collected through June 2025.

Accounting for people migrating out of the U.S., the survey found that the county saw a net gain of just over 27,000 people. In an expanded area that incorporates the collar counties, that number is roughly 10,000 more.

The finding is a significant decline from the previous year, but follows a national trend of decreased immigration.

Asked if he has any concerns of hard-working people from other countries skipping over Illinois – or the U.S. as a whole – immigration actions in Illinois, Bailey said he is, saying Pritzker’s opposition to the Trump administration has made the situation worse.

“Have there been mistakes made in some of the actions of ICE? Sure there have. The reason that ICE is having to do what they’re doing is because J.B. Pritzker will not allow state and federal law enforcement to do their job,” said Bailey.

Other metropolitan areas, including Bloomington, Champaign, Decatur, Peoria, Kankakee, and Springfield all saw outward migration domestically, ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand people.

Decatur and Kankakee both saw a decline in population when accounting for international migration and natural population changes.