National ratings outlet says Pennsylvania has most ‘toss up’ midterm races

By John Cole
The Center Square

The 2026 midterm elections are just under seven months away and the races for the U.S. House are beginning to heat up.

With control of the chamber on the line, a national ratings outlet says Pennsylvania has the most “Toss Up” races in November.

The Cook Political Report’s most recent ratings update on Tuesday shifted GOP U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan’s bid for reelection in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District from the “Lean Republican” category to the “Toss Up” column.

“Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan’s stock trades have dogged him all cycle, giving Democrats a potent line of attack in a district that has been trending Republicans’ way but is very much in play this cycle,” the Cook Political Report writes.

Bresnahan was elected to Congress in 2024 to represent the seat in northeast Pennsylvania after defeating Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright by roughly 1.6 points.

Although the primary election is still just one month away, it appears that the general election showdown is set for the contested district.

Bresnahan and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, a Democrat, are the only candidates who have filed to run for the seat in 2026.

In addition to Bresnahan’s bid for a second term being labeled a “Toss Up,” the Cook Political Report has rated the reelection races for U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-7th District, and Scott Perry, R-10th District, in the same category.

“Pennsylvania’s 7th District, nestled in the Lehigh Valley, is a rare true swing seat,” writes the Cook Political Report. “Donald Trump won the district by three points in 2016, lost it by less than a point in 2020, and then won it again by three points last year.”

Like Bresnahan, Mackenzie also flipped a blue seat red in 2024 after defeating Democrat incumbent U.S. Rep. Susan Wild by 1 point. Mackenzie’s roughly 4,000-vote victory was the closest Congressional contest in Pennsylvania’s last cycle.

While Mackenzie is the only Republican to file for the seat, four Democrats are vying for their party’s nomination to face him.

Perry, who is seeking an eighth term in Congress, bested Democrat Janelle Stelson by 1.2 points in 2024. His previous race was his closest election since being elected to Congress.

A rematch may be in the cards for the 10th Congressional District.

Stelson, a former central Pennsylvania television anchor, is running for the seat again and will face Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas for their party’s nomination.

Perry is the only Republican to file for the seat.

“Stelson is now waging a rematch against Perry, and both parties view the congressman as one of the most vulnerable House Republicans in the country,” according to a race summary by the Cook Political Report.

Republicans currently hold a slim majority over Democrats in the U.S. House, putting these races in battleground districts in Pennsylvania in the spotlight in November.